The Mortgage Bankers Association today released the Weekly Survey on Mortgage Application Activity for both the week ending December 25, 2009 and the week ending January 1, 2009. The MBA survey covers over 50 percent of all US residential mortgage loan applications taken by mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The data gives economists a look into consumer demand for mortgage loans. A rising trend of mortgage applications indicates an increase in home buying interest, a positive for the housing industry and economy as a whole. Furthermore, in a low mortgage rate environment, such a trend implies consumers are seeking out lower monthly payments which can result in increased disposable income and therefore more money to spend on discretionary items or to pay down other debt. In the...(read more)

After the mixed equity session yesterday stocks continue to drift ahead of key employment data and a comprehensive survey of the services, financial, and construction industries. As of 7:00, Dow futures are 19.00 points to 10,496, extending the 12-point loss seen on Tuesday. S&P 500 futures are down 3 points to 1129.25, offsetting the 3.5-point gain yesterday. Commodities are mixed with WTI Crude oil down 18 cents to $81.59 per barrel but Spot Gold up $3.75 to $1121.75 per ounce. Also, in the wake of comments from a European Central Bank member who said the EU would not be rescuing Greece, the greenback rose and the euro initially sank but then rebounded. “The comment by executive board member Jürgen Stark in Italy's Il Sole newspaper initially sent the euro reeling lower...(read more)

The Mortgage Bankers Associates (MBA) notes that, while some economists may have declared that the recession technically ended with the third quarter, its effects are still plaguing the real estate industry. The Association's Quarterly Databook for the period ended September 30 shows that the commercial real estate market has yet to show many signs of recovery from the downturn. The report states that vacancy rates rose during the third quarter for all major property types, with office and retail properties showing the greatest impact. Retail vacancies rose from 12.9 percent to 18.6 percent during the quarter while office vacancies increased 3.4 points to a 19.5 percent rate. Industrial properties increased from 9.8 percent to 13.0 percent while apartment vacancies rose from 6.5 percent...(read more)

The National Association of Realtors this morning released November Pending Home Sales data. A sale is listed as "pending" when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing. The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. Mortgage and Real Estate professionals know that a signed contract is just the first step in a long process nowadays though. The hard part is qualifying and closing! Pending Home Sales...(read more)

The decade started off well yesterday with all three US markets soaring by more than 1.50% yesterday. This morning the futures market looks to extend those gains ahead of the pending home sales index, even though investors believe the survey will show some cooling. Two hours before the open, Dow Futures are 6 points higher at 10,525 after rising 156 points yesterday. The benchmark S&P 500 Futures is up a modest 0.25 points to 1129.00, extending the 17.89-point gain yesterday. Meanwhile, commodity prices and the dollar are pretty flat. WTI Crude is slightly higher at $81.55 per barrel and Spot Gold is up 12 cents to $1121.32 per ounce. Yesterday, the key ISM manufacturing index jumped to a 44-month high of 55.9. All five major components moved upwards including a 5.2-point jump in the new...(read more)

Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, and Freddie Mac once again kept the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market going during 2009. The three government-sponsored enterprises wrote 89 percent of all new issues during the year, contributing to an increase of 51 percent in new MBS compared to 2008. Thomson Reuters reported on the eve of the holiday weekend that $291.5 billion in securities were issued during the year compared to $193.0 billion in 2008. That year was admittedly the slowest year for new MBS this decade, but the 2009 activity was hailed by Thomson Reuters as indication "that investors' appetite for risk improved amid signs of stabilization in the housing market." The shift to the agency MBS market is not new. It has held the lion's share of the market since 2007 when originators...(read more)

Looking back, 2009 was a tough year for me. Although our audience grew at a rapid rate and readers constantly commented on how appreciative they were of our efforts...I was not satisfied with my own personal progression. It seemed like I had plateaued and the expansion of my knowledge base had gone stagnant. This was obvious to me in my personal review of 2009 MND content. My CFA studies lagged, "Plain and Simple" was seldom seen, and copy writing began to seep into MND news stories (ugh yuck). After looking back on it...I feel like I wasted a lot of time and misdirected my energy. It felt like I lost focus. I was a very frustrated person in late 2009. With that in mind, I have received a TON of emails from readers over the past 6 months. The overwhelming theme: "AQ the industry...(read more)

Well ahead of the market open investors are busy thanks to comments from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke over the weekend. Noting widespread criticism that the housing bubble was inflated largely as a result of monetary policy that was too accommodative in the early 2000’s, Bernanke provided a synopsis of the arguments and the data, concluding that that policy was appropriate and that counter-arguments are “weak.” “Economists who have investigated the issue have generally found that, based on historical relationships, only a small portion of the increase in house prices earlier this decade can be attributed to the stance of U.S. monetary policy,” Bernanke said. “Regulatory and supervisory policies, rather than monetary policies, would have been more...(read more)

It’s the final day of the decade and the S&P 500 and Dow each are likely to close the year with their biggest annual percentage gains in five years, two of the many signs that the worst of the financial crisis is over. Year to date the S&P 500 is up 24.7% while the Dow is 20.2%. The economy may not be in shambles anymore but it’s still far from good, and for anyone who needs a reminder the one data entry today, jobless claims, should helpfully provide a dose of reality. Two hours before the trading session begins, The Dow looks to open 13 points higher at 10,503 while the benchmark S&P 500 looks to open 2.75 points higher at 1,124.75. Commodities are also on the rise with WTI Crude oil trading 36 cents higher at $79.64 per barrel and Spot Gold up $12.48 to $1,105.38...(read more)

Six days of equity gains came to a halt yesterday but the losses were trivial as the Dow slipped 0.02% and the S&P 500 fell 0.14%. This morning, however, equity markets are seeing real losses as traders lock in profits and prepare for the New Year. One hour before the bell, the Dow looks to open 46 points lower at 10,4and futures on the S&P are 5 points off to 1,116. Commodities are also weaker with WTI Crude oil falling 17 cents to $78.70 per barrel and Gold trading $6.01 lower to $1,090.82. Reporters from Business Week point out that oil prices are 77% higher now compared to the start of the year, marking the fastest annual climb in ten years. In addition, oil prices have tripled over the past decade. Data coming out today is unlikely to have a major impact. Only one release is scheduled...(read more)